Though the sources for “the plural of anecdote is data” and its mirror “the plural of anecdote is not data” are not clear, both claims will be sorely tested in the upcoming week with key reports on existing and new home sales.

Despite its prominence as a cornerstone of the economy and thus a vital piece of a recovery, housing has been moribund and references to improvement have dropped from the Federal Reserve’s radar. In its most recent statement following last week’s interest-rate review meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee said “investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level” but made no reference to home sales.

In the Beige Book report two weeks ago, the housing sector received less than stellar grades. Residential real estate markets, the anecdotal Beige Book said, “remained weak or softened further in the New York, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts, were little changed in the San Francisco District, and characterized as mixed in the St. Louis District. Richmond also reported overall housing activity as mixed, but one contact noted that absent the harsh weather, market conditions might have improved.” Prospects, the report added, were not bright. “Most Districts attributed stronger home sales to the home-buyer tax credit, with several contacts apprehensive about future sales once the credit expires on April 30.”

So it’s fairly obvious why the FOMC has for two straight meetings made no general reference to the housing sector after saying in December “the housing sector has shown some signs of improvement over recent months.”

The anecdotal evidence – by omission – suggests the FOMC had good reason to be wary.

Home sales numbers, using available forecasting evidence, are likely to be weak when they are reported Tuesday for re-sales and Wednesday for newly built homes. To be fair, the Tuesday report is less timely since sales of existing single family homes are reported on closing which means the report reflects economic conditions two months earlier (December) when sales agreements were signed. Sales of new homes are recorded when contracts are signed which means that report will reflect conditions in February when incomes dropped and even shopping for homes was slowed by mammoth snow storms. The new home sales data are not updated for cancellations.

There are a couple of reasons to think sales of new homes fell further in February after reaching an all-time low in January. Though it appears sales essentially have no where to go but up and home-buying plans as tracked by the Conference Board improved in February, overall consumer confidence plunged and demand for purchase mortgages fell in February from March, itself a signal of a drop in contracts.

Existing home sales are not likely to fare much better. February closings would be based on December contracts, that is contracts signed in the immediate aftermath of the first-time homebuyer tax credit. The new incentive became law even before the old tax credit program expired. With the new deadline months off, there was no need for buyers to jump back into the market at a time when home prices appeared to be rising.

In December, home buying conditions were relatively favorable with consumer confidence increasing and mortgage rates falling, but purchase mortgage application demand fell, another indicator that sales themselves likely dropped as well.

As important as the number of units sold will be, the median price of an existing home. The tax incentive has a significant influence on home values in theory allowing sellers to hold firm on prices since they know buyers will receive the equivalent of a “discount” from the government. In the aftermath of the initial tax credit program, the median price took its steepest slide in a year. Firming home values remain a key to the revival of the housing sector.

Beyond housing, just in time for the first quarter to draw to a close, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will Friday, issue the third estimate of fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product. The second estimate showed a blistering 5.9% growth rate annualized., the fastest rate in six years. Even the most optimistic economists acknowledge the growth rate won’t be sustained and even more significantly, employment has not grown commensurate with GDP. In drafting the stimulus approved by Congress in February 2009, White House economists estimated one million payroll jobs for every percentage point growth in GDP.

MONDAY	March 22	CHICAGO FED NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Feb)
		Monthly Index
		January actual: 0.02 UP 0.60
		No February Consensus
		Three-month Moving Average
		January Actual: -0.16 UP 0.31
		No February Consensus
		Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart Speech
TUESDAY	March 23	EXISTING HOME SALES (Feb)
		Unit Sales
		January Actual: 5,050,000 UP 520,000
		February Consensus: 5,000,000 DOWN 50,000, 1.0%
		Median Price: $164,700 DOWN 3.4% M-M; UNCHANGED Y-Y
		FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX (Jan)
		December Actual: 196.1 DOWN 1.6% M-M / DOWN 1.5% Y-Y
		No January Consensus
		MASS LAYOFFS (Feb)
		Announcements
		January Actual: 1,761 UP 2.0%
		No February Consensus
		Separations
		January Actual: 182,261 UP 19.0%
		No February Consensus
		RICHMOND FED SURVEY (Mar)
		February Actual: 2 UP 4
		No March Consensus:
		San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen Speech
WEDNESDAY	March 24	MBA APPLICATION INDEX (Week ended: Mar 19)
		Total Index:
		Week Ended March 12: 620.9 DOWN 1.9%
		Four-week moving average: 604.3 UP 0.9%
		Purchase Index:
		Week Ended March 12: 221.5 DOWN 2.3%
		Four-week moving average: 213.1 UP ,8%
		Refi Index:
		Week Ended March 12: 2,955.9 DOWN 1.7%
		Four-week moving average: 2,886.5 UP 1.0%
		No March 19 Consensus
		DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (Feb)
		Total
		January Actual: UP 3.0%
		February Consensus: UNCHANGED
		Ex-Transportation
		January Actual: DOWN 0.6%
		February Consensus: UP 0.4%
		NEW HOME SALES (Feb)
		January Actual: 309,000 DOWN 39,000, 11.2%
		February Consensus: 310,000 UP 1,000, 0.3%
		Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn Speech
THURSDAY	March 25	UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS (Wk Ended Mar 20)
		Initial Claims:
		March 13 Actual: 457,000 DOWN 5,000
		March 20 Consensus: 450,000
		Four-week moving average: 471,250 DOWN 4,250
		No March 20 Consensus
		Continuing Claims (Wk ended Mar 13)
		Week Ended March 6 Actual: 4,579,000 UP 12,000
		March 13 Consensus: 4,520,000
		KANSAS CITY FED INDEX (Mar)
		February Actual: 19 UP 6
		No March Consensus:
		Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto Speech
FRIDAY	March 26	GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (4Q - Third Report)
		3Q 2009 Final Actual: 2.2% [Q-Q Δ Annualized]
		4Q 2009 Advance Report Actual: 5.7%, [Q-Q Annualized]
		4Q 2009 Second Report Actual: 5.9%, [Q-Q Annualized]
		4Q 2009 Third Report Consensus: 5.7% [Q-Q Annualized]
		UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Final) (Mar)
		February (Final) Actual: 73.6 DOWN 0.8
		March (Preliminary) Actual: 72.5 DOWN 1.1
		March (Final) Consensus: 72.5 UNCHANGED
		Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo Speech
		Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh speech
		St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Speech

Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

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