End Of The LineBefore I go any further, congratulations to Northern Iowa. They played a great game and they deserved to win! Also, congratulations to Kansas State and Baylor yesterday and good luck to Missouri today. The Big 12, albeit injured, marches on. Ok, so much for that. What do Rams, Panthers and Miners have in common?
They all beat #1-seeded Kansas in the second round. The Northern Iowa Panthers join the UTEP Miners and the Rhode Island Rams as Davids against KU’s Goliaths.
I think I covered everything you could want to know on an historical basis with respect to KU as a #1 seed in my other post. But, this post is about this game and, to the degree possible, what it means.
Keep this in mind. The only thing anyone will remember 20 years from now is whether Kansas won a national championship or not in 2010. Let’s face it. The way they played against both Lehigh and Northern Iowa meant they were not going to win one this season whether they won those games or not. So, if you can manage to go to sleep for 20 years and then wake up, you’ll realize it’s no big deal.
In the 19.999 years of meantime, it sucks!
Having gotten that out my system, I’m fine with it. After all, we still have Missouri, Kansas State and, to a lesser extent, Baylor to root for. Kansas State as a national champion would be beyond incredible. Unless you have some inexplicable hatred for K-State, you can be like me and live vicariously through the Cats.
MUSING
In my opinion, the NCAA basketball tournament is the greatest sporting event in the world. But, what makes it so enjoyable is not seeing all the #1 seeds roll into the Final Four like Sherman tanks. What makes it such a wonderful spectacle is the fact that a #8 or #9 seed can beat #1 seed. The fact that it can, and sometimes does happen, is what keeps March Madness fanatics on the edge of their seat at all times.
Being a #1 seed so often means being in a position to be upset… more often. Yes, KU has had more than their share of #1-seed disappointments, but for every tear of pain, there is a corresponding tear of joy. It may be bitter tears from your co-worker or your spouse or your best friend – not to mention you. But, I try to do an out-of-body experience and imagine the elation the fans of Northern Iowa have tonight. No matter how disappointed you may be about the Hawks, you have to smile at least a little for the Panthers. :-) Come on. You can do it. :-)
For Kansas, this is just another loss – one of many for the Hawks in the years of the NCAA tournament– some worse than others. However, for the Northern Iowas of the world, this is perhaps the biggest victory in their school’s history. I wouldn’t want to take that away from them even if I could.
THE GAME
This game pointed out the biggest single weakness KU has had – that being that only one person (Collins) can consistently create his own shot and when he’s ice cold, Kansas is vulnerable to any good (or decent) team. Even so, I honestly did not think KU played poorly at all – simply that UNI played very good, solid, consistent basketball. They were the better team.
Although Iowa State isn’t the best yardstick, it’s worth noting that Northern Iowa is the only non Big 12 team in the nation to have defeated a Big 12 team on their home court.
A Good Lesson To Learn
One other thing that is worth pointing out is that if I were to ask you which team shot better, you would say UNI without hesitation. You would be wrong. If I were to ask you which team had the most rebounds – or at least offensive rebounds, you would say UNI without hesitation. You would be wrong.
This is a classic example of perception. Since KU’s starting guards were 0-11 from the arc while UNI was raining them down from Stillwater, I’m willing to bet not 1 person in 100 would recognize that Kansas had the better shooting night – meaning a higher EFFG% (50% to 48%). Kansas had 54 field goal points on 54 shots (54/54/2 = 50%). UNI had 53 field goal points on 55 shots (53/55/2 = 48%).
Likewise, I’m sure it seemed like Northern Iowa was getting every offensive rebound because, when they missed, the ball came out long and their rebounds were more visible (spectacular, if you will) – the same as their made three-pointers. But, KU not only outrebounded UNI 32-27, they even outrebounded them on the offensive glass 13-11.
The moral of the story is that you can’t trust your eyes or your emotions. You have to dissect the box score or you will forever live in a ignorantasy land. The spectacular play will always skew your perception of the game unless, and until, you decide to elevate your way of thinking.
When I say “you”, of course I don’t mean you. Afterall, anyone reading this on UFR already recognizes the necessity of what I’m saying. Those who don’t will continue to live in the dark ages with sunglasses on.
2010 POSITIVES
The bottom line is that Kansas won their sixth consecutive Big 12 championship. They won 33 games. They passed the 2,000 win mark and, at least momentarily, passed North Carolina in total wins. They added a bunch of weeks at #1 in the polls. Nobody was injured. Collins and Aldrich reached All-American status. Aldrich was named Academic All-American of the Year. The returning players got a lot of experience. Kansas reloads.
FUN WITH SCRABBLE
One the way home tonight, the guy on the radio (I never have any idea who I’m listening to) asked listeners to text him the number of scrabble points for Farokhmanesh on a triple word. Nobody was able to do it, but then someone indicated that if you played all those letters you would get a 50 point bonus. Still nobody got it right. Then someone mentioned that you couldn’t get a triple word without also having at least one double letter and it depended upon where the word was placed. That’s when I got home.
But, in case you are wondering, and setting aside the fact that Farokhmanesh is 12 letters and you can only have seven tiles in Scrabble, the most you could make out if it initially on the single letters and two double letters would be 32 points – the same round KU went out on. However, if you start in the upper left corner triple word and work across or down, you get two separate triple word scores. That’s 96+96=182… and you get the 50 point bonus for playing all seven tiles. Final tally, 232 points = 200 plus… the round KU went out on.
NOTES
-- Aldrich ends the season six shy of the KU career record held by Greg Ostertag (258 from 1992-95).
-- Aldrich collected his 37th career double-double to tie Nick Collison (2000-03) for fifth on the KU all-time list.
-- Kansas' nine assists were a team season low. The previous low was 10, done three times.
GROUP
KU’s groups: Leaders (Collins, Aldrich, Reed, Morningstar, Teahan), Sophomores (T-Tandem & Taylor) and Freshmen (Ex, EJ, T-Rob, CJ, Withey). I’m keeping stats on each group for each game based on EFF. These are the stats (per game). I’ll be showing the most recent 7 games.
| G30 | G31 | G32 | G33 | G34 | G35 | G36 | Avg |
Leaders | 34 | 38 | 62 | 49 | 53 | 50 | 29 | 45.2 |
Sophs | 43 | 39 | 28 | 33 | 31 | 49 | 21 | 33.2 |
Frosh | 13 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 19 | 13 | 20.2 |
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UGLY POINTS
The formula is (100 minus points scored) + missed FG + missed FT + turnovers + fouls. The higher the score, the uglier the game.
Opponent | UGLY |
9. Cornell | 96 |
10. Northern Iowa | 95 |
11. Oklahoma State | 94 |
-
Northern Iowa had an UGLY score of 92.
GAME FLOW
Minutes | Half 1 | Half 2 | Total |
1-4 | 9-12 | 4-6 | 13-18 |
5-8 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 6-10 |
9-12 | 7-5 | 8-5 | 15-10 |
13-16 | 5-9 | 10-7 | 15-16 |
17-20 | 4-5 | 14-10 | 18-15 |
TOTAL | 28-36 | 39-33 | 67-69 |
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PLAYER PRODUCTION
Here are the player’s points and EFF as well as their season EFF.
Player | Points | EFF | SeasonEFF |
Aldrich | 13 | 22 | 20.0 |
McMorris | 16 | 13 | 14.8 |
XHenry | 8 | 13 | 13.3 |
MfMorris | 10 | 7 | 9.9 |
Reed | 8 | 6 | 6.3 |
Collins | 10 | 1 | 13.4 |
Taylor | 2 | 1 | 8.9 |
Robinson |
|
| 3.6 |
Withey |
|
| 2.3 |
Morningstar |
|
| 7.5 |
Teahan |
|
| 1.5 |
Johnson |
|
| 3.4 |
CJHenry |
|
| 3.5 |
Buford |
|
| 0.7 |
Juenemann |
|
| 0.6 |
TOTALS | 67 | 63 |
|
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EFF = (Pts + Reb + Ast + Blk + Stl - Missed FG – Missed FT – TO)
NOT IN THE BOXSCORE
PTS | InThe | Off | Second | Fast | From |
SCORED | Paint | TOs | Chance | Break | Bench |
Opponent | 14 | 21 | 18 | 2 | 18 |
Kansas | 28 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 18 |
-
| Actual | Effective | Ast/ | Ast | Hustle |
| FG% | FG% | TO | FGM | Pts |
Opponent | .400 | .482 | 1.22 | .50 | 21 |
Kansas | .444 | .500 | 0.60 | .38 | 22 |
Hustle = Blocks + Steals + Off Rebounds
Martin,
Before UFR I'd never had much exposure to basketball stats, so it's been an enlightening and interesting season and thanks for that.
With your recent posts about when Collins "really" became the winningest player in KU history and observations that teams sometimes seem to play better when their best player is not on the floor (last night, for instance, KU seemed to be better when Aldrich was on the bench) I got to wondering if anyone has ever tried to apply an NHL type plus-minus system to basketball.
I've seen it said that Self didn't apply the press earlier or more often, because Aldrich couldn't keep up with it and it would seem teams often make accommodations for their star players that might actually hurt the team in the bigger picture. A plus-minus system would provide a clearer picture of what's actually working and what isn't.
Has anyone ever tried to apply a plus-minus system or is it just too gargantuan a task?